With Rolls-Royce's share price up 11% this month, have I missed my chance?

I Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) share price feels like the 'Talk of the Town' these days. In the past year alone, the stock is up 147%. This company has been on my watch list for a long time, but I keep waiting for the right moment to pull the trigger.

So is there a buying opportunity on the horizon, or will this one continue to climb higher?

Amazing recovery

The company's turnaround story has been amazing. Many investors will remember it facing tough challenges during the crisis because of its dependence on the aviation sector. However, since then, management has made a remarkable recovery under the leadership of CEO Tufan Erginbilgiç.

Cost-cutting measures, strategic refocusing, and increased air travel have all contributed to the company's improved profitability. In the past month alone, shares have risen 11%.

As an avid investor, I always wonder if this is the end of the pipeline, or just the beginning? Clearly, there is a huge demand for the company's products across the board, in aviation, defense, and beyond.

The recent excitement is driven by potential revenues from clean energy. Analysts point to huge opportunities for increased energy efficiency through the use of small modular reactors (SMRs) and sustainable jet fuel. However, after a sustained rally, there is a risk that investors will take profits and move on at the first sign of trouble.

Numbers

For me, the answer to whether I've missed the boat lies in the numbers. With analysts looking far into the future for potential growth areas, and mapping out risks, there are plenty of ideas out there. I try to focus on metrics like discounted cash flow (DCF) calculations. This estimate suggests that there is still 57% more healthy growth before a fair value decision is reached.

Obviously, this sounds good. However, with annual income expected to decline by 1.6% over the next five years, growth may slow. If investors have enjoyed healthy returns of late, a sudden reversal in trend could send a few packing.

Let's take a look at the competition. Both BAE Systems again Babcock International had an attractive increase in gross income (7.4% and 15.2%). At a P/E of 18 times (compared to 22 times and 16 times), Rolls-Royce isn't exactly cheap, but there may be better opportunities.

In the past, my main concern was the huge debt of £5.7bn on the balance sheet. However, recent earnings reports show the company's upward guidance for next year's revenue. I suspect that debt will be significantly reduced by this time next year.

I will continue to wait

So while the easy money may have already been made, there may be a good number of opportunities for long-term investors. Ultimately, whether I miss my chance with Rolls-Royce depends on the investment environment I am willing to commit to, and the success of the company's long-term strategy.

I still see great value in the company's strategic position and growth opportunities. While there may be more opportunities out there, I will be keeping this one on my watch list, and waiting for the right time to buy.