Colombia's 12-month inflation eased in September despite truckers' strike: Reuters poll Reuters
Written by Nelson Bocanegra
BOGOTA – Colombia's 12-month inflation is forecast to continue falling in September, despite the impact of a truckers' strike, according to a Reuters poll on Wednesday, while expectations for this year remain stable.
According to the median forecast of 20 analysts, Colombia's 12-month inflation will reach 5.83% through September, lower than the 6.12% reported at the end of August, but still above the central bank's long-term target of 3%.
If the average forecast is reached, consumer prices will increase by 0.26% in September, similar to 0.25% in the same month last year, but higher than the 0% registered in August.
Analyst estimates ranged from 0.17% to 0.38%.
In September “the education sector is renewed with the school calendar, while we expect to see moderate inflation in all sectors,” said Jackeline Pirajan, Scotiabank's chief economist for Colombia.
He also added that the effect of the national strike on food prices was seen through the manipulation of the moon but “disappears quickly.”
The South American country faced a four-day strike by truck drivers in the first week of September to protest the increase in diesel prices, which caused food and fuel shortages in major cities.
The sharp drop in inflation was the main reason why the central bank board cut the interest rate by 275 basis points since its tapering cycle started in December 2023.
On Monday, the monetary authority cut the rate by 50 basis points to 10.25%, in a split vote where three of the seven board members called for a 75 basis point reduction. The remaining four tend to remain cautious to control inflation.
Those polled now expect inflation to end this year at 5.6%, almost unchanged from the 5.61% target last month, while expectations for the end of 2025 have dropped to 3.70%, down from 3.75% in the previous survey.
