Analysis-Global push together as space traffic masses Earth goes round By Reuters

by Nivedita Bhattacharjee

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The rapid proliferation of satellites and space debris will render the Earth’s orbit unusable unless companies and countries cooperate and share the information needed to manage that accessible region, experts and industry insiders say.

A United Nations panel on space traffic communications in late October decided that urgent action was needed and called for a comprehensive shared database of orbital objects and an international framework for tracking and controlling them.

More than 14,000 satellites, including about 3,500 inactive ones, orbit the globe in low Earth orbit, data from US-based Slingshot Aerospace showed. Next to those are an estimated 120 million pieces of debris from launch, collisions and wear and tear, only a few thousand of which are large enough to track.

“There is no time to lose in communicating traffic in space. As more things are launched into space, we must do everything we can to ensure safety in space, and that means facilitating the sharing of information between operators, whether public or private, to avoid conflicts,” said panel chair Aarti Holla -Maini, director of the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs.

Low Earth orbit must remain safe to prevent costly disruptions to the technologies behind global communications, navigation and scientific exploration, he said.

However, there is no central system that all space travel nations can use and even persuade themselves to use this system there are many obstacles. While some countries are willing to share data, others are afraid of compromising security, especially since satellites are often dual-purpose and include security purposes. In addition, businesses are committed to guarding trade secrets.

Meanwhile, chaos is multiplying. A Chinese rocket stage exploded in August, sending thousands of pieces of debris into low Earth orbit. In June, a defunct Russian satellite exploded, scattering thousands of bullets that forced astronauts on the International Space Station to take cover for an hour.

Low Earth orbit is the most densely populated region with man-made objects as it provides a balance between cost and proximity, making it a prime target for the rapidly growing commercial sector. It also saw a 17% increase in close-to-satellite approaches last year, Slingshot data said.

Projections point to tens of thousands more satellites entering orbit in the coming years. The potential financial risk of a collision could be $556 million over five years, based on an estimated scenario with an annual collision probability of 3.13% and $111 million in annual damages, Montreal-based NorthStar Earth & Space said.

“We are at a critical juncture in terms of establishing rules and structure in space to monitor and manage the growing density. With Starlink launching thousands of satellites a year, and China and others preparing to follow, we will soon be pushing the capacity to carry advanced orbits,” said NorthStar CEO Stewart Bain.

DANGEROUS BUSINESS

Low Earth orbit is crowded, with bands similar to the Starlink satellite internet service from commercial space company SpaceX – at an altitude of 540–570 km (336–354 miles). As of Nov. 27, Starlink has 6,764 satellites in orbit, Jonathan Space Report showed.

SpaceX data showed that Starlink satellites performed nearly 50,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in the first half of 2024, nearly double the previous six months.

SpaceX did not respond to Reuters’ request for comment.

The European Space Agency, which has fewer spacecraft than SpaceX, has said that by 2021 its targets have increased to three or four times per spacecraft compared to the historical average of one.

The 800–900 km band contains few satellites but has 3,114 objects – including active and inactive payloads, rocket bodies and fragments – which make up 20% of the total number of objects in low Earth orbit, which pose a high risk of collision, LeoLabs data showed.

Obsolete satellites add to the clutter as they remain in orbit until they fall into — and burn up — Earth’s atmosphere years later or fly into “graveyard orbit” some 36,000 kilometers away.

Russia received international criticism in November 2021 when it test fired a missile at a defunct satellite in orbit, creating thousands of pieces of debris. Russia invaded Ukraine three months after the inspection.

“The chances of inter-regional conflicts have been increasing in the past. If this goes into space it could mess up the space environment. We urgently need uniform global rules for coordination,” said Anirudh Sharma, CEO of Bengaluru-based. Digantara, which focuses on awareness of space conditions.

FINAL FRONTIER

The UN’s Holla-Maini, whose office serves as the secretary of the Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space, said the October panel aims to bring together experts from the public and private sectors to outline the necessary steps to begin coordination. It will present its findings at a committee meeting next year.

Global cooperation is essential in establishing enforceable rules such as those used by the International Civil Aviation Organization for air traffic, industry experts told Reuters.

Such an effort would include the use of existing tools, such as databases, telescopes, radars and other sensors to track objects while improving coverage, early detection and accuracy of data.

Yet national tensions and reluctance to share data with nations perceived as unfriendly and commercial concerns about protecting proprietary information and competitive advantages remain significant obstacles.

That leaves orbital mission operators relying on informal or informal methods to avoid collisions, such as drawing on data from the US Space Force or groups like the Space Data Association. However, this may include issues such as accountability and inconsistent data standards.

“The biggest challenges are speed – as building consensus takes time – and trust,” said Holla-Maini. “Some countries are not able to communicate with each other, but the UN can make this process easier. Speed ​​is our biggest enemy, but nothing else. It must be done.”