Tech stocks will trade under the TSX Composite
In the same way as our Canada and USA bets described above, the TSX Composite did not beat technology stocks, if we define technology stocks as the Nasdaq 100 (100 largest stocks on the Nasdaq stock exchange). That said, since the beginning of July, the Nasdaq is up about 6.5%, while the TSX Composite is up 15% over the same period.
Canada’s GDP per capita will continue to decline
Unfortunately, this one hit the nail on the head. Gross domestic product (GDP) per capita decreased by 2024. We have now suffered six consecutive quarters of declining GDP per capita. As of 2014, Canada ranked 27th out of 30 developed economies in terms of GDP per capita growth.
Adjusted for immigration, Canada’s economy has been stuck in neutral for 10 years now. Here’s a look at how our economy compares to our largest trading partner.
This is what the future will look like if current manufacturing trends continue:
The low GDP numbers continued to generate more talk of “Is it a recession or not?”
Yes, we are still talking about the recession. A few weeks ago, former Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz said, “I would say we’re in a recession, I wouldn’t even call it a recession. Technically it’s a superficial explanation that you have two quarters of negative growth in a row, and we’ve never had that, but the reason is that we’re full of people from other countries buying the basics of life, and that’s improving. our use is adequate.”
The best Canadian stocks
Oil prices remain below USD$85 per barrel
While we were right about this, it may seem obvious in retrospect. It can be easy to forget how fat some investors have been over the past 12 months. At the end of December 2023, Barclays predicted that the price of WTI would be between USD$93, and the Bank of America predicted USD$90. We are available if either of those two institutions would like us to lead their teams of mineral analysts.
The best online retailers, rated and compared
Crypto may be volatile, but end 2024 up 50% (plus)
Bullseye! As you’ll learn as you read on, we didn’t get it all right this year. We certainly couldn’t have predicted that a presidential candidate would buy a large stake in a cryptocurrency company, then go from calling bitcoin a “scam” to taking nearly half a billion dollars from the crypto industry and becoming its biggest promoter.
Bitcoin is down more than 25% from March to August 2024, ahead of the current rally promoted by president-elect Donald Trump. That event now has bitcoin up 125% year to date. Despite predicting a BTC rally, we remain as skeptical as we were last year. To be included in my portfolio an investment must have a profit and/or cash flow, and BTC does not have this.
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