Factbox-Brokerages see ‘uncertainty’ for 2025 on concerns over potential Trump tariffs By Reuters

(Reuters) – Uncertainty over US policies could slow global economic growth to modest growth in 2025, according to major brokerages. They expect the tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump to further destabilize global markets, increase inflationary pressure, and limit the use of central banks to ease monetary policy.

The global economy and equity markets have had a strong year, with global growth expected to reach 3.1% this year, according to a Reuters poll published in October.

The following are forecasts from some top banks for economic growth, inflation and the performance of major asset classes in 2025:

Forecasts for stocks, currencies and bonds:

US Brokerage for 10 years

targeted yield target

UBS Global 6400 3.80% 1.04 157.0 7.60

Research

Goldman Sachs 6500 4.25% 1.03(next 159(next 7.50(next

12-months) 12-months 12-months)

)

UBS Global 6600 4.00% 1.12 145 7.50

A treasure

Managers

Wells Fargo (NYSE:) 6500-6700 4.50%-5.00% 0.98-1.02 158-162

Investment

Institution

Societe

Normal 4.50% (Q4’25) 1.09 146.3 7.28

Deutsche Bank (ETR:) 7000 4.7% (Q4’25) 1.03 (Q4’25)

Nomura 135 6.93

Morgan Stanley (NYSE:) 6500

3.55% (Q4’25) 1.10 (Q4’25) 138 7.60

(Q4’25) (Q4’25)

JPMorgan 4.10% (Q3’25) 1.08 148 7.50

6500

BofA Global 6666 4.25% 1.10 160 7.40

Research

Wells Fargo 4.00%

BMO Capital 6700

Markets

Jeffries 6000

Barclays (LON:) 6600

Piper Sandler 6600

Berenberg 4.90% 1.08 140 7.20

BNP Paribas (OTC:) 3.65% (Q4’25) 1.15 (Q4’25) 131

(Q4’25)

US Inflation:

US inflation (Y/Y for 2025)

Brokerage CPI Core PCE Title

Goldman Sachs 2.5% 2.4%

JPMorgan 2.4% 2.3%

Morgan Stanley 2.3% 2.5% (Q4/Q4)

Barclays 2.3% 2.5%

Wells Fargo 2.6% 2.5%

Société Generale (OTC:) 2.3% 2.5%

Deutsche Bank 2.6% 2.6% (Q4/Q4)

Wells Fargo 3.3%

Investment

Institution

UBS Global 2.6%

A treasure

Managers

Citigroup (NYSE:) 2.1 (Q4’25) 2.3 (Q4’25)

BofA Global 2.4%

Research

Berenberg 2.7% 2.6%

BNP Paribas 2.3%

Real GDP Growth:

Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025

Brokerage GLOBAL US CHINA EURO AREA UK INDIA

UBS Global 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3% (for

Research FY 26)

Goldman Sachs 2.7% 2.5% 4.5% 0.8% 1.3% 6.3%

Barclays 3.0% 2.1% 4% 0.7% 1.2% 7.2%

Morgan Stanley 3.0% 2.1% 4.0% 1.0% 1.4% 6.5%

(FY25/FY2

6)

JPMorgan 2.4% 2.2% 3.9% 0.8% 1.0% 6.0%

UBS Global Wealth 2.9% 1.9% 4.0% 0.9% 1.5% 6.3%

Managers

Wells Fargo 2.5% 2.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.6% 5.9%

Societe Generale 2.2% 4.7% 1.0% 1.6%

3.3%

Citigroup 1.1% 1.0%

Nomura 4.0% 6.9%

BofA Global 3.3% 2.4% 4.5% 1.1%

Research

Deutsche Bank 3.1% 2.5% 4.8% 0.8% 1.3% 6.5%

Wells Fargo 2.5%

Investment

Institution

Berenberg

2.7% 2.4% 4.5% 1.0% 1.6% 6.5%

BNP Paribas

2.1% 4.5% 1.5% 1.5% 6.7%

(March

2026)

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are separate, independent divisions within the UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank