Written by Vivian Sequera, Mayela Armas and Matt Spetalnick
CARACAS/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The flight of Venezuela's opposition presidential candidate, Edmundo Gonzalez, has largely extinguished hope for political reform, voters say, as longtime President Nicolas Maduro fends off international criticism over the conduct of disputed July elections.
Election officials and Venezuela's supreme court say the July 28 vote was won by socialist Maduro, who has been in power since 2013.
After being threatened with arrest, Gonzalez over the weekend fled to Venezuela – and other Venezuelans are already choosing to do the same.
Those who remain are losing hope of change, as post-election protests have begun and punitive measures from abroad have not materialized.
“I thought there would be a change, but now I don't know, it seems we will follow in the footsteps of Cuba,” said teacher Ender Lopez, 56, in the center of the Venezuelan city of Valencia. His two children have moved.
“Some people believe in international dialogue, but now I don't think they will do anything,” added Lopez.
More than 7.7 million people have left Venezuela in recent years and many are determined to join its strong diaspora around the world.
“I want a better life,” said immigrant Alejandra Medina, who spent two nights with her sons, ages 4 and 2, in Pacaraima, a city on the Brazilian border.
In August, 12,325 Venezuelans arrived in Pacaraima, according to Brazil's Federal Police, up from 8,050 in June.
SHADOW GOVERNMENT
The former lawyer and leader of the opposition Maria Corina Machado, who said last week that he wanted the world to do “more,” on Monday urged countries to respect Gonzalez as the president-elect, saying that he will continue his revolutionary war from Spain, there. he has applied for asylum.
But Venezuela has been here before. Former opposition leader Juan Guaido in 2019 created a similar government – based on arguments that Maduro's re-election in 2018 was illegal – an effort supported by many Western democracies.
The attempt failed. Guaido eventually fled to the United States, the opposition called for a shadow government, and diplomatic efforts shifted to parallel talks between the opposition and the government and the United States and the government.
Those talks led to an agreement on electoral terms signed in Barbados last October, the release of dozens of opposition-linked Venezuelans and 10 Americans, and a temporary easing of US sanctions.
The détente was temporary, established even before the elections. The United States said in April it would restore oil industry restrictions in response to Maduro's failure to meet election commitments.
US officials defended Washington's recent response, insisting they are coordinating any future action with regional and international partners.
TRANSPORT MIGGINGS
But people familiar with the matter see Washington's options as limited and say Venezuela is competing for attention with foreign policy priorities such as the Israel-Hamas conflict, Russia's war in Ukraine, and China's growing influence in the Indo-Pacific.
The Biden administration is finalizing a list of Venezuelan officials and their families who will face individual sanctions and US visa bans, sources said, but no official announcement has been made.
U.S. officials have privately expressed skepticism about the actions, which could cause significant damage to Venezuela's already struggling economy, fearing that it could lead to an increase in migrants at the US-Mexico border. Immigration is a hot issue in the US presidential campaign.
Asked about criticism of the US for doing too little and whether any action now could be too little, too late, a spokesman for the National Security Council at the White House reiterated the administration's position on Monday, saying the US was “considering many options”.
Talks with Maduro were not expected until after the Nov. 5 US election, London-based investment bank BancTrust said in a note on Monday.
“If the fall of Maduro was imminent or the talks about the revolution were still going on, (Gonzalez) would not have left the country, in our opinion,” the statement said.
For any talks to take place there will need to be enough pressure from the Venezuelan government and military, which has long supported Maduro, said Venezuelan lawyer and international politics expert Mariano de Alba.
Among politicians, “there is a fear that international pressure tools may end up having a negative effect,” he said, adding that more external pressure may further consolidate the government.
Brazil – whose president used to have a good relationship with Maduro – has sharpened his criticism in recent weeks.
The Venezuelan government revoked Brazil's authorization to represent Argentina's interests in the country, including the administration of an official residence where six dissidents have taken refuge, on Saturday, drawing Argentina's condemnation and Brazil's surprise.
A media source in Brazil said on Monday that Gonzalez's departure weakened the position of the opposition.
“We understand why he had to leave,” the source added. “But it makes Maduro stronger.”
