Up 22% per month! Now I think the price of easyJet will go up in the next FTSE bull run!

I EasyJet (LSE: EZJ) share price is rising. It increased by 21.79 percent last month, although the FTSE 250 fell at that time.

I am happy because one month ago I tipped the person in charge of the budget as “good buying opportunity” for my portfolio. I shouldn't feel too subtle, though. History shows that easyJet shares can go anywhere from here.

easyJet caught my eye because I decided it was oversold after a bad run. The board had posted a 16% rise in headline pre-tax profit for Q3 to £236m on 24 July, which looked good to me.

Can easyJet shares continue to rise?

Profits in the easyJet Holidays division increased by 49% to £73m. Passenger numbers rose a steady 8%, although its key revenue per seat metric rose 1%.

I determined that investors were not buying the stock because of fears about the state of the economy in general, and the airline industry in particular.

Airline stocks can fluctuate. They have huge fixed costs, and many aircraft and manpower, but revenue is lost due to economic downturns, conflicts, bad weather, strike action, volcanoes and epidemics. easyJet shares are up 22.41% over the past year. However, they are still down 39.16% over five.

Long-term investors have not received much in compensation. This company paid a dividend of 36.96 %. Then the plague hit and they got nothing for four years.

Chart with TradingView

As the chart shows, the dividend is returning, with a forecast yield of 2.41% in 2024, rising to 2.79% in 2025. Even better, easyJet shares look well-valued despite recent gains, trading at just 8.79 times forward earnings.

This FTSE 250 stock could rise

Investors tracking the stock are optimistic, setting an average one-year price target of 654.5p. That's up 25% from today's price of around 524p per share.

Much now depends on the wider economy. The good news is that wages have been rising faster than inflation for a long time. As interest rate cuts begin to eat in, that should put more money in people's pockets.

Lower oil prices are another good thing, as this will reduce fuel costs and increase margins. However, that may change if the global economy grows and oil demand stabilizes.

Ryanair are scaring investors with complaints of falling demand and rising prices over the summer, while easyJet recently shrugged off these concerns. That seems strange, although CEO Johan Lundgren pointed out, they compete directly on 20% of the routes.

The outlook is good but as we have seen in the past, that can change in an instant. The cost of living problem is not over. easyJet must work hard to increase revenue per seat, and reassure investors that its recovery is sustainable.

Sadly, I didn't have the money to buy easyJet last month. I'm still willing to buy its shares, I'm just annoyed that I paid 20% for them today.

I'll bite the bullet anyway. I think this is the kind of consumer-oriented stock that should lead when the next race begins.