Stock Market

After crashing 15% in a month my favorite growth share looks like I was bought for nothing

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Trainer and sportswear specialist JD Sports Fashion (LSE: JD) was my favourite FTSE 100 growth share for years. So I filled my boots after January's profit warning caused by a bad Christmas trading period.

I've had a rough ride since then but I felt vindicated when the stocks took off in September and I suddenly found myself up 30%.

However the past month has been tough as the JD Sports share price has fallen by 14.56% in that time, halving my paper profit.

There's no way I'm selling it though. I buy stocks with a narrow five-year horizon, and I would like to hold this one for decades. Instead, I wonder if I got a second chance to buy more.

The price has dropped

There is a shadow hanging over JD shares and it is in the form of a swoosh. Shares in a key coach provider NikeJD's biggest partner, dropped four years in the summer as sales slumped.

Declining demand from China, competition from cheaper rivals such as Hoka, and the decision to sell directly to consumers while cutting back on third-party sellers were all to blame. When Nike withdrew its full-year financial outlook and lowered second-quarter profit expectations on October 1, JD Sports also took a hit.

That was despite JD publishing a good set of half-year results the following day, which showed half-year profits up 2% to £405.6m. That was better than expected, given today's standards “a challenging and volatile market”.

Bury's JD has had its share of problems, as a Red Sea ship attack by Houthi rebels disrupted deliveries, while a wet spring reduced demand for camping at its Millets and Blacks chain.

The figures only include a 10-day contribution from US acquisition Hibbett, but it now represents 40% of the group's revenue and should contribute £25m to full-year profits. JD is planning a major expansion into the US market, with 700 new stores planned over four years.

Stores are still heavily discounting to attract customers as the cost of living crisis continues. Nike is still a problem. At least JD has Adidas although. While Nike's share price is down 20% for the year, Adidas is up 30%.

This FTSE 100 stock looks great value

In the long run, Nike's mis-step could help JD Sports. I've always worried that big name brands might decide to bypass JD and go their own way, but as Nike has shown, this opens up the floor for cheaper or more expensive competitors.

Shares of JD Sports are up a modest 4.56% over 12 months, but down 38.06% over three years. I still think there is a huge opportunity here.

The stock looks well-valued with a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9. The average price to sale ratio is just 0.6, suggesting investors are paying just 60p for every £1 of income.

The 13 analysts providing one-year share price forecasts have an average target of 174.15p. That's up more than 30% from today. This confirms my view that I'm looking at the best opportunity to upload my favorite growth share, so that's what I'm going to do.


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