From Taiwan to trade, China is fighting for more competition as Trump claims victory via Reuters
Written by Laurie Chen
Beijing – As Donald Trump claimed victory in the US presidential election, defeating Democrat Kamala Harris, China is looking at four more years of superpower rivalry over trade, technology and security.
Trump has shown strength in wide swathes of the country, receiving a larger share of the national vote than in the past four years, polls show.
Chinese diplomats say that while they expect fiery rhetoric and potentially crippling tariffs from Trump, others say his isolationist foreign policy could give Beijing room to expand its influence around the world.
“Beijing expects a close contest in the US election. Although Trump’s victory is not the result China prefers and raises concerns, it is not at all unexpected,” said Tong Zhao, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“The Chinese leadership will likely strive to maintain the appearance of a good personal relationship with Trump, while intensifying efforts to project China’s strength and power.”
TRUMP TARIFF THREAT
Trump proposed to impose tariffs of more than 60% on China’s imports and end China’s most favored trade status, and analysts say the prospect of a trade war has excited China’s leadership.
China sells more than $400 billion worth of goods a year to the US and hundreds of billions more in parts of the products Americans buy elsewhere.
“Beijing is very wary of the renewal of the trade war under Trump, especially since China is currently facing major internal economic challenges,” Zhao said.
“China also expects Trump to accelerate the dismantling of technology and supply chains, a move that could jeopardize China’s economic growth and indirectly impact social and political stability.”
In response, China is likely to intensify its push for technological and economic self-sufficiency, while feeling more pressure to strengthen economic ties with countries such as Russia, he added.
“Going forward, Beijing may be drawing up a list of clear agreements and trade deals with Washington, hoping it can focus on its more pressing economic problems while Trump’s attention is elsewhere,” said Brian Wong. an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong who studies major strategies.
GLOBAL POWER VACUUM
China is likely to strengthen relations with countries in the South, Europe and Northeast Asia if Trump wins, given his “trade, isolationist, anti-globalist and anti-multilateral international policy”. said Wong.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi reached a rare truce last month, and Beijing has tried to reach out to Japan’s new leadership this fall following years of strained relations.
“China expects the second Trump administration to continue withdrawing from international agreements and commitments, creating opportunities for China to increase its influence on energy imports,” Zhao added.
Trump has lashed out at democratically-ruled Taiwan by saying it has to pay Washington for its defense and to take over American semiconductor business.
“The Biden administration has used high-pressure tactics on China in Taiwan, the US military has been stationed in Taiwan and sold weapons to Taiwan … in a major departure from the Trump administration’s previous Taiwan policy,” said Shen Dingli, an international relations expert. in Shanghai.
“Trump is unlikely to give Taiwan the same support in the future.”
